Risk Analysis Model of the Human Health Impact of Fluoroquinolone Use in Rearing Broilers
David J. Vose, David Vose Consultancy, Ltd., "La Coutancie", Dordogne, France
The use of antimicrobials in the rearing of animals intended for human consumption brings with it a potential human health impact. As part of a program to evaluate this human health impact, the FDA-CVM commissioned a risk assessment to determine the incremental campylobacteriosis human health impact resulting from the use of fluoroquinolone with broilers. The assessment takes the form of a mathematical model that estimates the number of annual cases of campylobacteriosis resulting from consumption of domestically reared poultry that were caused by fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter and that would have been prescribed fluoroquinolone by a medical practitioner. The amount of fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter contaminated poultry was also estimated. This allows a model to estimate the future human health burden for a given fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter contaminated prevalence in poultry, which means that the FDA can monitor the poultry prevalence of fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter to ensure that a predetermined threshold for acceptable human health impact is not exceeded. The risk assessment determined that some 5,000 people would have had an increased duration of campylobacteriosis as a result of the use of fluoroquinolone in poultry in 1998.